TurpinRealtors.com/Reports
With the close of the second quarter, we are pleased to report that sales throughout our North Central New Jersey real estate market remain brisk. Buyer demand is strong in most market segments and the data suggest that home supply remains constrained. Though it feels as if the market has settled down a bit from its peak in April, in fact many towns are seeing even tighter supply in popular price ranges. Renewed interest in suburban living, attractive interest rates and limited inventory indicate that the current levels of activity are likely to continue through the second half of the year.
Comparing second quarter performance to 2020 is problematic because the Spring 2020 lockdown, and its ensuing decline in home sales, have led to artificially inflated results. The near-200% spike in sales that is illustrated in our county charts in April is but one example, and should be viewed within this context.
County-Level Performance for June 2021
In the month of June, inventory in the counties we studied was 30%-40% lower than the prior year, resulting in an across-the-board increase to median sale prices and a reduction in average days on market by half. Declines in contracts pended during June are almost certainly due to the inventory shortage, rather than a lack of demand. In terms of unit sales volume, the $1-2 million segment has shown tremendous improvement, though as supply tightens there is potential for a decline in transactions. Sales above $3 million are improving as well, which is a trend we hope will continue.
Town Level Results for June 2021
At the town level, our second quarter report documents staggering year-over-year improvements, although as noted above, they are skewed by the unusual circumstances of 2020.
• For homes under $1 million, 71% of the towns we studied show fewer than 2 months’ supply of inventory as of June 30th. Chatham Borough, Harding, Mendham Borough, Mountain Lakes and Califon are especially tight, with less than one month of supply in this price range. For comparison, during the same period in 2019, none of the 39 towns in our study had fewer than two months’ supply.
• The $1-2 million market continues to lead the way in year-over-year improvement, perhaps because the supply in this segment was better matched to the demand. Bernards Township, Chatham Borough, Madison, Mendham Township and Tewksbury all showed phenomenal gains, with many sales increases topping 300% versus year-to-date 2020; as compared to the same period in 2019, the improvement is still marked, ranging from 150-290%.
• Activity above $2 million is increasing as well and we are hopeful that this momentum will continue as 2021 progresses. Year-to-date gains were posted in Bedminster (+3 units), Bernardsville (+6 units), Far Hills (+2 units) and Peapack-Gladstone (+1 unit), while Harding also improved significantly (11 sales as compared to 4 during the same period in 2020). In Chatham Borough, during the first half of 2021, five homes traded between $2-3 million; this equals the total sales volume of the preceding six years combined! Unsurprisingly, Summit and Millburn-Short Hills continued to set the bar in high-end home sales, with 5 and 7 year-to-date sales, respectively.
We are enthused by the strength of our current market and fascinated by the dynamics of this evolving real estate picture. Successfully matching buyers and sellers requires astute perspective and a broad-ranging skillset. At Turpin, we are focused on ensuring our team has the knowledge, training and support to help our clients thrive in the current climate—from accurate pricing strategies to best practices for promotion, PR and handling multiple bids.
See the data → https://bit.ly/3x1AWfs